CGV | 26 Predictions on the Development of Prediction Markets in 2026

Published by: CGV Research

Authors: Shigeru & Cynic

Today, prediction markets are evolving from a "fringe financial experiment" into a foundational layer of information, capital, and decision-making systems.

In 2024–2025, the market witnessed the breakout of platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi; looking ahead to 2026, what the market may face is the systemic evolution of prediction markets as a new form of information infrastructure.Based on continuous research over the past two years into prediction markets, AI agents, crypto finance, and regulatory trends, the CGV research team presents 26 judgments for the year 2026.

I. Structural Trend Judgments

1. Prediction markets will no longer be defined as "gambling" or "derivatives" in 2026

They will be redefined as decentralized information aggregation and pricing systems.

By 2025, cumulative trading volume on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi had exceeded USD 27 billion. Mainstream media including CNN, Bloomberg, and Google Finance widely integrated probability data from these platforms, citing them as real-time consensus indicators rather than betting odds. Academic research from institutions such as Vanderbilt University and the University of Chicago shows that prediction markets outperform traditional polls in political and macroeconomic forecasting accuracy.

By 2026, as traditional financial giants such as ICE invest in Polymarket and distribute its data globally, regulators (e.g., the CFTC) are expected to further recognize prediction markets as information aggregation tools - driving a paradigm shift from a "gambling label" toward decentralized pricing systems.

2. The core value of prediction markets lies not in "being right," but in signals

What the market ultimately pays for is the ability to reflect consensus shifts ahead of time.

In 2025, probability movements on Polymarket and Kalshi led mainstream economists and polls by one to two weeks in Federal Reserve decisions and major sports events. Reports show their Brier scores significantly outperformed polling benchmarks - achieving 0.0604 versus 0.125 (good) and 0.10 (excellent). Accuracy further improved as trading volume increased.

By 2026, with institutional hedging demand surging (e.g., using probability signals to hedge macro risk), platform data will be increasingly embedded in financial terminals. Signal value will far exceed trading returns, becoming a real-time "consensus barometer" for institutions and media.

3. Prediction markets will evolve from "event-level" to "state-level"

Not just "who will win," but "what state the world is in."

In 2025, platforms launched persistent state markets such as "Bitcoin price ranges in 2026" or "probability of economic recession," with open interest rising from early-year lows to tens of billions of dollars. Kalshi's macro indicator markets grew rapidly as a share of activity.

By 2026, long-cycle state markets are expected to dominate liquidity, aggregating structural consensus and providing continuous pricing of world states rather than single-event outcomes.

4. Prediction markets will become the external reality-validation layer for AI systems

AI will no longer rely solely on data, but on capital-weighted judgment.

In 2025, Prophet Arena benchmarks showed AI models achieving accuracy comparable to prediction markets in real-world forecasting. Kalshi's collaboration with Grok and Polymarket's AI-generated summaries used capital-weighted probabilities to reduce hallucinations.

By 2026, as protocols such as RSS3 MCP mature, prediction market probabilities will broadly serve AI world-model updates, forming a closed loop between reality, markets, and models - significantly improving AI output reliability.

5. Information, capital, and judgment will form a closed loop in a single system for the first time

This fundamentally differentiates prediction markets from social media and news platforms.

In 2025, Polymarket data integrated into Bloomberg and Google Finance created an efficient loop of information input → capital pricing → judgment output. Unlike unincentivized opinions on Twitter, capital mechanisms enforce truthfulness.

By 2026, this loop is expected to extend into enterprise risk management and policy evaluation, generating strong externalities and positioning prediction markets as a new decision-making infrastructure rather than mere content platforms.

6. Prediction markets will no longer be a niche within crypto

They will be absorbed into the broader AI × Finance × Decision Infrastructure narrative.

In 2025, ICE invested USD 2 billion into Polymarket, Kalshi reached a USD 11 billion valuation, and incumbents such as DraftKings and Robinhood launched prediction products. Total trading volume exceeded USD 27 billion, with data embedded in mainstream terminals.

By 2026, accelerated institutional adoption and AI integration will push prediction markets from a crypto niche to a core AI–finance–decision narrative, akin to Chainlink's role in the oracle space.

II. Product Form Factors

7. Single-event prediction markets will reach maturity in 2026

Innovation will shift from UI to structure.

In 2025, total prediction market volume reached roughly USD 27 billion, with Polymarket contributing over USD 20 billion and Kalshi over USD 17 billion. Single-event markets dominated but showed slowing growth post-peak.

Innovation increasingly focused on infrastructure, such as Azuro's LiquidityTree model for efficient liquidity and PnL distribution. By 2026, such upgrades are expected to stabilize single-event markets and support larger institutional participation.

8. Multi-event portfolio markets will become the dominant form

Prediction will move from single points to joint pricing of correlated variables.

In 2025, Kalshi's "combos" multi-leg trading gained traction, enabling portfolios across sports and macro events and attracting institutional hedging. Conditional markets further improved pricing depth.

By 2026, with clearer regulation and institutional capital inflows, multi-event portfolios are expected to become mainstream, enabling complex risk management and significantly deeper liquidity.

9. Long-horizon markets will emerge

Forecasting outcomes six months, one year, or even three years ahead.

In 2025, Polymarket and Kalshi expanded multi-year markets such as Bitcoin price ranges and economic indicators, with open interest rising to tens of billions of dollars. Position lending mechanisms reduced capital lock-up.

By 2026, long-horizon markets are expected to dominate portions of liquidity, offering more robust structural consensus and potentially doubling open interest again.

10. Prediction markets will be embedded into non-trading products

Research tools, risk systems, and decision backends - not trading frontends.

In November 2025, Google Finance deeply integrated Kalshi and Polymarket data, enabling Gemini AI to generate probability analyses and charts. Bloomberg and others followed.

By 2026, embedding will accelerate: prediction probabilities will become standard inputs for macro research, enterprise risk management, and decision backends. CNN and CNBC also signed multi-year agreements with Kalshi in December 2025, embedding probabilities into programs such as Squawk Box and Fast Money.

11. B2B prediction market value will surpass B2C for the first time

Institutions need consensus pricing more than retail users.

In 2025, enterprise applications (e.g., supply chains and project management) consistently outperformed traditional methods. Institutional hedging demand surged.

By 2026, B2B value is expected to overtake retail B2C, transforming prediction markets into enterprise-grade infrastructure. The supply chain analytics market alone reached USD 9.62 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow at a 16.5% CAGR through 2035 - prediction markets can embed as consensus-pricing layers in AI-driven forecasting systems.

12. "No-token, low-speculation" prediction markets will outperform

Markets will reward restraint in 2026.

In 2025, Kalshi achieved monthly peak volumes exceeding USD 500 million without a native token, capturing over 60% market share. Polymarket confirmed a POLY token launch in Q1 2026, but low-speculation operations drove growth.

By 2026, restrained design is expected to outperform in regulatory compatibility, real liquidity, and institutional trust - giving low-speculation platforms an edge in long-term valuation and sustainability.

III. AI × Prediction Markets

13. AI agents will become major participants

Not for speculation, but continuous participation and calibration.

By late 2025, RSS3 MCP Server and Olas Predict enabled AI agents to autonomously scan events, acquire data, and trade on platforms such as Polymarket and Gnosis. Prophet Arena tests showed improved market efficiency.

By 2026, AI agents are expected to contribute over 30% of volume, acting as persistent liquidity providers rather than short-term speculators.

14. Human prediction will increasingly become training data, not the primary actor

Markets will serve models more than humans.

In 2025, benchmarks from Prophet Arena and SIGMA Lab showed that human-driven market probabilities significantly improved model training and validation.

By 2026, prediction markets will prioritize AI optimization, with human participation serving mainly as signal input.

15. Multi-agent prediction games will become a new source of alpha

Prediction markets will evolve into multi-agent competitive arenas.

Projects such as Talus Network's Idol.fun and Olas treated prediction markets as collective intelligence battlegrounds.

By 2026, multi-agent competition is expected to be a primary alpha source, attracting developers to build specialized agent strategies.

16. Prediction markets will constrain AI hallucinations

Judgments that cannot be wagered on will be treated as low-confidence outputs.

By 2026, "un-bettable" claims are expected to be automatically down-weighted by AI systems, improving reliability.

17. AI will push prediction markets from probabilities to distributions

From single numbers to full outcome curves.

By 2026, distributional views will become standard in UI and APIs, significantly improving tail-risk pricing.

18. Prediction markets will become external interfaces for world models

Reality → market pricing → model updates.

By 2026, prediction markets are expected to serve as standard external inputs for AI world models, closing the loop between reality, markets, and model iteration.

IV. Finance & Business Models

19. Trading fees are not the endgame

Real value lies in data, signals, and influence.

By 2026, data licensing and signal subscriptions are expected to contribute over 50% of platform revenue, shifting valuations from volume to data assets.

20. Prediction signal APIs will become core products

Especially in finance, risk, policy, and macro domains.

By 2026, signal APIs are expected to reach a USD 10+ billion market, with leading platforms dominating through exclusive licensing.

21. Content and interpretation will become key moats

Explaining predictions will matter more than predictions themselves.

By 2026, platforms with strong explanatory capabilities will form network effects, monetizing influence beyond trading.

22. Prediction markets will underpin new research institutions

They will evolve into research infrastructure, not media.

By 2026, prediction markets will function as real-time decision engines for enterprises, governments, and AI systems.

V. Regulation & Market Structure

23. Regulation will shift from "can it exist" to "how it is used"

Focus will move to use cases, boundaries, and anti-manipulation rules.

This mirrors the maturation path of derivatives markets.

24. Compliant platforms will enter via non-financial use cases

Policy evaluation, supply chains, and risk alerts will be key entry points.

These areas face minimal resistance yet attract institutional and governmental clients.

25. Winners will be defined by citations, not traffic

Platforms most referenced by AI, institutions, and research systems will prevail.

Network effects will resemble Chainlink's oracle dominance.

26. The ultimate competition is about becoming infrastructure

After 2026, prediction markets will either become "utilities" or be marginalized.

Those that succeed will be as indispensable as Bloomberg or Chainlink - others will remain transactional and fade.

Conclusion

Prediction markets no longer need to prove feasibility. The real inflection point lies in whether they are treated as decision signals, not merely trading tools.

By 2026, competition will center on signal stability, credibility, and citation frequency - not hype or traffic. Whether prediction markets evolve into long-term information infrastructure or remain cyclical narratives will define the next stage of the industry.

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About Cryptogram Venture (CGV):

CGV (Cryptogram Venture) is a crypto investment institution headquartered in Tokyo, Japan. Since 2017, its fund and predecessor funds have participated in investments in over 200 projects. Since 2022, CGV has invested in and incubated the licensed Japanese yen stablecoin JPYW, making an early move in the crypto stablecoin sector. Starting in 2024, CGV has expanded into the tokenized equity and RWA markets, participating in private placements of projects such as Nabate (NA) and Victory Securities (8540.HK). Currently, CGV also has branches in locations such as Hong Kong and Silicon Valley.

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